Publications

Publications from Prior Work on the Missouri River Basin

Hydroclimate:
Wise, E.K., C.A. Woodhouse, G.J. McCabe, G.T. Pederson, and J-M. St. Jacques. 2018. Hydroclimatology of the Missouri River basin. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19, 161-182, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0155.1

This paper assesses the major source regions of Missouri River flow, describes the climatic controls on streamflow in the upper and lower basins both in terms of seasonal climate and large-scale patterns of circulation, and investigates trends in flow and key climate variables over the instrumental period.

Woodhouse, C.A. and E.K. Wise. 2020. The Changing relationship between the upper and lower Missouri River basins during drought. International Journal of Climatology 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6502

The results of this paper suggest that decreasing flows, reduction in snow versus rain fraction, and warming spring temperatures in the Upper Missouri River basin over the 20th and 21st centuries have reduced Upper Missouri River contributions to total Missouri River flow. These contributions have been particularly important during droughts and upper basin flows will be less likely to alleviate low flows in the lower basin during droughts in the future.

Paleohydrology and paleoclimate:
Martin, J.T., G.T. Pederson, C.A. Woodhouse and 16 co-authors. 2020. Increased drought severity tracks warming in the United States’ largest river basin. Proceedings of the National Academies of Science (PNAS),

Martin, J., Pederson, G.T., Woodhouse, C.A., Cook, E.R, McGuire, M., Broman, D., Lanini, J., et al. 2019. 1200 years of Upper Missouri River streamflow reconstructed from tree rings. Quaternary Science Reviews, 224, 105971. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.105971

The above two papers describe the reconstructions of annual streamflow from 31 gages in the Upper Missouri River basin.  The reconstructions cover the past millennium, thus greatly expanding our understanding of past natural streamflow variability prior to the 20th century.  They also show how streamflow in past centuries compares to more recent observed changes in runoff. Analyses indicate that temperature has increasingly influenced streamflow variability and the intensity of drought events in the basin since the late 20th century. The recent (~2000-2010) drought was driven by exceptional warming and matched or exceeded other droughts identified over the last 1200 years.

Ravindranath, A., N. Devineni, U. Lall, E.R. Cook, G. Pederson, J. Martin, C.A. Woodhouse. 2019.  Streamflow Reconstruction in the Upper Missouri River Basin Using a Novel Bayesian Network Model. Water Resources Research. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR024901

This methods paper shows how a Bayesian network model can be used to reconstruct streamflow for 18 gages in the Upper Missouri River basin.

Frederick, S.E. and C.A. Woodhouse. 2020. A Multi-Century Perspective on the Relative Influence of Seasonal Precipitation on Streamflow in the Missouri River Headwaters. Water Resources Research.https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025756

This paper assesses the contribution of winter snowpack and spring precipitation on annual streamflow in the headwaters of the Missouri River over past centuries, and suggests that the influence of winter snowpack has been more variable than has been observed in the instrumental record.